生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(10)：3274-3285,12.DOI:10.5846/stxb201603090415
基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例
Farmers' perception of climate change based on a structural equation model: a case study in the Gannan Plateau
摘要
Abstract
Global climate change has become an indisputable fact.The effect of climate change on humans has become increasingly serious,especially for the livelihood of farmers.The perception of climate change is the basis of adaptation.Determining the key factors that affect farmers' perception of climate change and clearing the formation mechanism of farmers' climate change perception are very important for selecting adaptation strategies.Using the Gannan Plateau as a case study,based on survey data from 539 households,we constructed the path model and analyzed farmers' adaptive capacity,climate change information,trust of social discourse,and the influence of adaptation incentives on farmers' risk perception and adaptive perception of climate change.The results showed that:(1) Farmers' adaptive capacity directly influenced farmers' climate change perception,and the stronger the farmers' adaptive capacity,the stronger their risk perception and adaptive perception;(2) Climate change information also directly influenced farmers' climate change perception,with farmers with greater climate change information having stronger risk and adaptive perception.In addition,climate change information also influenced farmers' adaptive capacity;(3) Trust of social discourse directly influenced farmers' climate change perception,with farmers that were more trusting of social discourse having stronger risk adaptive perception.Trust of social discourse also influenced farmers' climate change information and their adaptive capacity;and (4) Adaptation incentive directly influenced farmers' climate change perception,with greater adaptation incentive increasing farmers' adaptive perception and decreasing their risk perception.In addition,the adaptation incentive influenced farmers' climate change information and their adaptive capacity.In conclusion,based on the key factors that influence farmers' climate change perception,we developed policy recommendations in order to improve the accuracy of farmers' climate change perceptions and the effectiveness of their adaptive behavior.关键词
农牧户/气候变化/风险感知/适应感知/路径分析Key words
farmer/climate change/risk perception/adaptive perception/path analysis引用本文复制引用
雒丽,赵雪雁,王亚茹,张钦,薛冰..基于结构方程模型的高寒生态脆弱区农户的气候变化感知研究——以甘南高原为例[J].生态学报,2017,37(10):3274-3285,12.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41661115,41361106,41471116) （41661115,41361106,41471116）
中国科学院内陆河流域生态水文重点实验室开放基金(KLEIRB-2S-16-03) （KLEIRB-2S-16-03）
