西南林业大学学报2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：178-182,5.DOI:10.11929/j.issn.2095-1914.2017.03.028
普达措国家公园旅游生命周期评判
Evaluation on Life Cycle in Potatso National Park
摘要
Abstract
Based on the resort life cycle theories, 6 prediction models of linear, exponential, GEPTTs, logistic regression, GM (1, 1) and ARIMA (1, 1, 1) was constructed with the statistics of tourists in Potatso National Park from 2007 to 2015. The results indicated that GM (1, 1) model has the best prediction effect, the overall effect were as the follows:GM (1, 1)>logistic regression>linear>exponential>ARIMA (1, 1, 1)>GEPTTs. The simulation equation based on GM (1, 1) grey forecasting model was x (t+1)=49. 157119e0. 159615t ± 27. 302081. Visitors in Pudacuo National Park may exceed 5 million people in 2025 based on the prediction of tourist number in the next 10 years.关键词
普达措国家公园/旅游/生命周期/模型/预测Key words
Potatso National Park/tourist/life cycle/model/prediction分类
农业科技引用本文复制引用
刘传,董静,邱守明..普达措国家公园旅游生命周期评判[J].西南林业大学学报,2017,37(3):178-182,5.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目 (41261031) 资助 （41261031）
云南省社科基金项目 (JD2015YB11) 资助 （JD2015YB11）
西南林业大学教研项目 (yb201403)资助 （yb201403）
云南省哲学社会科学创新团队建设项目 (214226) 资助. （214226）
