大气科学2017，Vol.41Issue(1)：43-56,14.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1604.15223
中国干湿区变化与预估
Changes and Projection of Dry/Wet Areas over China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the dry/wet index,the authors analyzed changes in dry/wet regions over China and projected their future change scenarios using CMIP5 (Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5) models.For the period of 1962-2011,the results show that the averages of extreme arid,arid,semi-arid,semi-humid,and humid regions account for 2.8％,11.7％,22.4％,32.6％,and 30.5％ of the land area of the country,respectively.The dry/wet index decreases overall and tends to become wet in the west and dry in the east.There is a significant contraction of humid and extreme arid regions but a significant expansion of semi-humid,semi-arid,and arid regions,indicating an increase in theclimatically sensitive regions.The distribution of the change trend of dry/wet index during the spring and autumnresembles that of the annual mean,and the northwest tends to become dry during the winter while the southeast isbecoming wet during the summer.Under the RCP4.5 (Representative Concentration Pathway 4.5) scenario,the median ofthe 18 CMIP5 models shows that,relative to the period of 1986-2005,annual precipitation would decrease only in thesoutheast,and the potential evapotranspiration would increase over the entire country,leading to dry/wet index decreasesin most regions except the western part.The humid,arid,and extreme arid regions would reduce,while the opposite istrue for the semi-arid and semi-humid regions.关键词
干湿指数/CMIP5模式/RCP4.5情景/预估Key words
Dry/wet index/CMIP5 model/RCP4.5 scenario/Projection分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
姜江,姜大膀,林一骅..中国干湿区变化与预估[J].大气科学,2017,41(1):43-56,14.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目41375084、41421004 （）
National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41375084 and 41421004) （Grants 41375084 and 41421004）
