大气科学2017，Vol.41Issue(2)：313-320,8.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1605.16104
利用高原积雪信号改进我国南方夏季降水预测的新方法及其在2014年降水预测中的应用试验
Improve the Prediction of Summer Precipitation in South China by a New Approach with the Tibetan Plateau Snow and the Applicable Experiment in 2014
摘要
Abstract
Sever floods occurred in southern China and droughts were prevalent in northern China in the summer of 2014.Most predicted models in China missed the southern rain band in their flood season predictions conducted in March 2014,which led to relatively low prediction accuracy.Based on the higher prediction skill for summer sea level pressure of climate models and the significant relationship between the preceding winter Tibetan Plateau Snow and summer precipitation in the south,a new Hybrid Statistical Downscaling Prediction (abbreviated as HSDP) method for summer precipitation anomaly prediction in China was proposed in this paper.The method can integrate the information of the highly predictable circulation from climate models and the influential signal of Tibet Plateau Snow in the preceding winter to improve the dynamical-statistical combination prediction for summer precipitation in the south.Using this method,a statistical downscaling model was established based on the climate prediction model of National Climate Center of China.The cross validation of seasonal prediction for the summer precipitation in the south was performed and the results showed that the HSDP improved the multi-year average of anomaly correlation coefficient from-0.006 to 0.24,and it had a higher predicting skill than the original climate model in most years.Using HSDP,the precipitation prediction for the summer of 2014 could well capture the basic situations,i.e.floods in southern China and droughts in northern China,and the positive precipitation anomaly in the south.The anomaly correlation coefficient could reach 0.43.This result indicated that the HSDP has a great operational application prospect with regard to summer precipitation prediction in China.关键词
气候预测/夏季降水预测/2014南方洪涝/气候模式/统计降尺度Key words
Climate prediction/Summer precipitation/Floods occurred in southern China/Climate model/Statistical downscaling分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘颖,任宏利,张培群,贾小龙,刘向文,孙林海..利用高原积雪信号改进我国南方夏季降水预测的新方法及其在2014年降水预测中的应用试验[J].大气科学,2017,41(2):313-320,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金41405080,国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2015CB453203,中国气象局气候研究开放实验室基金(2014年) National Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) (Grant 41405080),National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(Grant 2015CB453203),Open Subject of Laboratory for Climate Study in CMA (2014) （973计划）
