大气科学2017，Vol.41Issue(2)：333-344,12.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1608.16115
GRAPES全球模式的误差评估和订正
Error Evaluation and Correction for GRAPES Global Forecasts
摘要
Abstract
Using the ERA-interim reanalysis data of ECMWF as the reference,numerical errors of the GRAPES global model are evaluated first.A numerical correction of the systematic model errors is then performed based on the historical observation data by using the Anomaly Numerical-correction with Observations (ANO) method.The effect of the ANO on the global forecast is tested by several case studies,and significant improvements on the global forecasting quality are confirmed.The ANO application in numerical results from 15 to 24 July during 1984-2014 shows significant positive effects in the circulation forecasts compared to those without the ANO application.For example,the potential height and temperature forecasts have been improved in various regions.Analysis of the geopotential height forecasts at 200 hPa shows that the anomalous correlation coefficient (ACC) increases by 0.05 and the root mean square error (RMSE) decreases by 12 gpm on average for all the 31 cases.Similar results can be found at other levels.The above results verify the validity of the ANO method in the improvement of 10-day numerical weather forecasting skill of the GRAPE global model.Compared with the MOS method,the ANO method is more efficient and maneuverable for application in the operational forecast.关键词
数值天气预报/GRAPES全球模式/误差订正/模式距平积分订正(ANO)方法/历史资料Key words
Numerical weather prediction/GRAPES global model/Error correction/ANO (Anomaly Numerical-correction with Observations) method/Historical data分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
佟铃,彭新东,范广洲,常俊..GRAPES全球模式的误差评估和订正[J].大气科学,2017,41(2):333-344,12.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2012CB417204,国家自然科学基金项目41175095、41575103,十二五科技支撑项目2012BAC22B01 National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program) (Grant 2012CB417204),National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41175095,41575103),1990 "Five-second" National Science and Technology Support Program (Grant 2012BAC22B01) （973计划）
