农业工程学报2017，Vol.33Issue(4)：278-284,7.DOI:10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2017.04.038
基于约束性CA模型的城市开发边界划定方法
Partition method of urban development boundary based on constrained cellular automata model
摘要
Abstract
In order to solve the problem of urban development boundary delimitation in general land use planning, this study has designed the cellular automata (CA) model for identifying urban development boundaries. To maximize public interest, the general land use plan is made to consist of a system of planning restriction indicators at different spatial levels, embodying the top-down planning pattern. However, existing research of urban evolution CA model is mainly focused on its transition rules. The states of one cell are determined by the threshold value, which is hard to realize the constraint for urban land size. That is to say, the previous studies could not satisfy the needs of the urban development boundaries' delimitation. The CA model, designed in this study, makes a greater contribution to satisfying the planning constraints for the quotas of incremental urban land and incremental urban encroachment on cultivated land. The rationale is enabling CA available for land use planning through adding relevant planning constraints. The planning constraints for urban development boundaries comprise the quotas of land use and incremental urban encroachment on cultivated land. Transition probability of urban land depends on the factors including urban development suitability, neighborhood principles and urban expansion restrictions. Urban development suitability is the determinant of inherent urban development. This suitability is normally represented in the form of probability matrix in the CA model. The urban land transition probability matrix, based on the cellular scale, is calculated by the logistic model. The dependent variable is whether the type of cellular land use is changed into urban land. The changing cellular ones are assigned with the value 1, otherwise the value 0. The independent variables include factors concerning the aspects of terrain, location, fundamental infrastructure, and so on. In this paper, Moore 3×3 window is selected as the CA neighborhood model. Cellular status value is binary. That is, cellular type of urban land is assigned with the value 1, otherwise the value 0. This research uses the land use maps of 2 phases for calculating and making statistics of the probability of cellular land type changing into urban land. Spatial constraints of urban development boundaries mainly concern the eco-environmental aspect, basic farmland restriction and competition of various land use types. The CA model applies the selection strategy based on the maximized probability. The CA model of urban development boundary delimitation is established based on the Python language, referring to the Arcpy and Numpy class databases. The software interface is a user-defined tool of ArcGIS, which is easy to be invoked in Geographic Information System (GIS). The Gongyi City in Henan Province is chosen as the case study area to validate the designed CA model, based on the remote sensing images of 3 phases (i.e., the year 2005, 2010 and 2015). The validity of the simulation results has been verified and manifested as the 3 following aspects: 1) The quota requirements of urban land use size (2865.92 hm2) and incremental construction land through occupying cultivated land (282.80 hm2) have been satisfied; 2) The requirements of space expansion restriction have been met, such as protecting basic farmland and ecological land; and 3) The CA model applies the urban development suitability as the cellular transformation rule, embodying the top-down planning principle. The results of simulation have a higher accuracy. The accuracy is 93.09% and the Kappa coefficient is 90.41%. In a nutshell, the CA model designed in this study meets the requirements of defining the boundaries of urban development in general land use planning and can provide decision support for the plan-making system of urban development boundary.关键词
土地利用/规划/模型/元胞自动机模型/城市开发边界/土地利用总体规划/多规合一Key words
land use/planning/models/cellular automata model/urban development boundary/general land use planning/multiple planning integration分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈伟强,潘元庆,马月红,马会宁..基于约束性CA模型的城市开发边界划定方法[J].农业工程学报,2017,33(4):278-284,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41501189) （41501189）
河南省教育厅科技攻关项目(14B630002). （14B630002）
