气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(1)：21-29,9.DOI:10.3969/2015jms.0080
风暴尺度集合预报最优侧边界条件扰动方法设计:个例分析
Optimal design of lateral boundary condition perturbation method in storm-scale ensemble forecast: A case study
摘要
Abstract
Considering the apparent difference between global forecasting model and convection-per mitting model in resolution ratio,an intermediate limited-area model should be used to provide lateral Boundary Condition Perturbations(LBCPs) for Storm-Scale Ensemble Forecast(SSEF),but the problem that what kind of LBCPs are the most suitable for SSEF still remains unknown.Three different LBCPs schemes are tested in a case study based on WRF model.The results show that LBC_DOWN has better large scale perturbation energy while LBC_CYCLE has more in smaller scale.The blended method LBC_BLEND is much closer to LBC_DOWN at large scale and much closer to LBC_CYCLE at smaller scale;the blended method LBC_BLEND also perform better at spread-skill than the other two experiments;meanwhile,LBC_BLEND has almost the same skill as LBC_CYCLE has in precipitation probability forecast.关键词
风暴尺度/集合预报/侧边界条件扰动Key words
Storm-scale/Ensemble forecast/LBCPs分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
庄潇然,闵锦忠,蔡沅辰,冯佳玮..风暴尺度集合预报最优侧边界条件扰动方法设计:个例分析[J].气象科学,2017,37(1):21-29,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(41430427,40975068) （41430427,40975068）
