气象科学2017，Vol.37Issue(1)：127-133,7.DOI:10.3969/2016jms.0005
中国东北地区冬季气温趋势及反相模态分析
Analysis of trend pattern and seesaw pattern of winter temperature in Northeast China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the mean monthly temperature data of 97 stations during 1951 to 2010 in Northeast China,the methods of trend Empirical Orthogonal Function (trend-EOF) and Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) were used to analyze the trend pattern and seesaw pattern of winter temperature and its influencing factors.The trend-EOF results show that a consistent trend variation existed over Northeast China,and trend-PC1 has distinct interdecadal periodic variation and a longer-term uptrend variation.The EOF results derived after removing global warming signal show that the first EOF mode depicts a consistent region-wide spatial distribution,while the second EOF mode describes a temperature inverted distribution between northern and southern part of the region.These two modes can explain over 80％ variance.Under the background of global warming,the first mode of EOF is not only a local response to global warming but a positive response to the variation of low latitude Sea Surface Temperature (SST) over Indian ocean correlated with the global warming.Meanwhile,the global warming may change general atmospheric circulation,weaken the Siberian high pressure,and intensify the zonal circulation,which all lead to the rising of temperature in Northeast China.It is suggested that the tropical eastern Pacific SST a nomalies can predict the appearance of the second mode.When the typical El Ni(n)o happens,the temperature in the south of northeastern China would rise and in north it would fall.关键词
东北地区/冬季气温/全球变暖/厄尔尼诺Key words
Northeast China/Winter temperature/Global warming/El Ni(n)o分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
徐迪,任保华,郑建秋,董祝雷,卢国阳..中国东北地区冬季气温趋势及反相模态分析[J].气象科学,2017,37(1):127-133,7.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2012CB417403) （973计划）
中国科学院战略性先导科技专项(XDA05090402) （XDA05090402）
热带海洋环境国家重点实验室课题(LTO1502) （LTO1502）
