水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(3)：261-269,9.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160570
梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价指标体系及决策模型
Assessment index system and decision-making model for load adjustment schemes of cascade hydropower stations
摘要
Abstract
The preference of cascade hydropower stations' load adjustment schemes directly impacts the benefits and risks of power generation sector.However,due to incompleteness of existing risk-benefit synergy assessment index system,it is unable to conduct a comprehensive and effective assessment on load adjustment schemes so far.This article aims to establish a systematic risk-benefit synergy assessment approach to improve the accuracy and effectiveness of load adjnstment schemes assessment.In this article,authors proposed a comprehensive index system of risk-benefit synergy assessment based on the actual cascade hydropower stations operation process;defined generation risk rate,load fluctuation risk rate,and opportunity loss risk as new indexes then put forward their calculation formulas;besides,introduced the correlation coefficient matrix to replace the covariance matrix of Mahalanobis distance to address the deficiency of the traditional grey target decision-making model in terms of insensitivity of relative indexes;in addition,used the relative bull's-eye to calculate and sort the non-inferior sets.According to the case study of Jinping-guandi cascade hydropower stations of the Yalong River in which a comparison was performed between the traditional grey target model and the grey target model based on Mahalanobis distance,the methodology proposed by this article shows more reasonable results,which can be an important reference for future research on load adjustment of cascade hydropower stations.关键词
梯级水电站/负荷调整方案/风险效益协同评价/指标体系/改进灰靶决策模型Key words
cascade hydropower stations/load adjustment schemes/risk-benefit synergy assessment/index system/an improved grey target decision-making model分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
纪昌明,李荣波,刘丹,张璞,张验科,周婷..梯级水电站负荷调整方案评价指标体系及决策模型[J].水利学报,2017,48(3):261-269,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51279062,51509001) （51279062,51509001）
“十三五”国家重点研究计划课题(2016YFCO402208) （2016YFCO402208）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2016MS51,2016XS58) （2016MS51,2016XS58）
中国水利水电科学研究院流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室开放研究基金(IWHR-SKL-201420) （IWHR-SKL-201420）
雅砻江流域水电开发有限公司(JKZX-201416-01) （JKZX-201416-01）
