水利学报2017，Vol.48Issue(3)：308-316,324,10.DOI:10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20160329
基于聚合水库蓄放水模拟的洪水预报研究
A method for flood forecasting based the operation chart of aggregated reservoir
摘要
Abstract
Hydraulic constructions can dramatically alter the hydrological characteristics of the basin,especially the process and volume of the flood,which make it more difficult to accurately forecast flood.In the present study,we propose a new method for flood forecasting,which can effectively account for the hydraulic constructions.In this method,the hydraulic constructions is firstly aggregated as the equivalent reservoir,whose operation chart of holding and discharging is obtained according to the rule of the single hydraulic construction.Then,the new flood forecasting method is formed by combing the operation chart with the original TOPMODEL calibrated with the natural flood.The proposed method has been applied for forecasting flood in Subarea Ⅱ of the Fengman basin in Northeast China and results show that the precision is significantly improved with an advance of the qualified ratio of forecasting runoff yield.The situation that the value at beginning of flood season and after a long drought is usually underestimated has also been modified.Three types ot typical flood process simulated by the new method are more suitable to observed process.All the results indicate that the method developed can effectively account for the impacts of hydraulic constructions on flood process.关键词
洪水预报/水利工程影响/聚合水库/蓄放水模拟图/TOPMODEL模型Key words
flood forecasting/hydraulic constructions/aggregated reservoir/operation chart of holding and discharging/TOPMODEL分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
孙新国,彭勇,张小丽,周惠成..基于聚合水库蓄放水模拟的洪水预报研究[J].水利学报,2017,48(3):308-316,324,10.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51379027,91547111) （51379027,91547111）
辽宁省自然科学基金项目(2015020608) （2015020608）
国家十二五科技支撑计划子课题(2015BAB07B03) （2015BAB07B03）
