生态学杂志2017，Vol.36Issue(3)：757-765,9.DOI:10.13292/j.1000-4890.201703.009
基于APSIM模型识别气象因子对内蒙春小麦潜在产量的影响
Identifying the effects of meteorological variables on spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia based on APSIM model
摘要
Abstract
Based on the spring wheat field trial data from agro-meteorological experiment stations and daily meteorological data in Inner Mongolia,the adaptability of agricultural production system model APSIM in the spring wheat planting areas of Inner Mongolia was analyzed by grey correlation method.The optimum meteorological factors impacting the potential yield of local spring wheat were determined.The response of spring wheat potential yield to climate change was explored.Overall,the potential yield of spring wheat in Inner Mongolia showed a decrease trend from 1961 to 2014,with an average 3560.84 kg · hm-2.Especially,the highest potential yield and the lowest yield were found from 1981 to 1990 (3681.33 kg · hm-2) and from 2001 to 2010 (3432.82 kg · hm-2),respectively.Regional differences in potential yields were significant:in the past 54 years,the distribution of spring wheat potential yield in Inner Mongolia was in belt type gradually increasing from the middle to the east and the west.And the maximum potential yield of spring wheat was found in the western region.The meteorological factors differed in affecting spring wheat potential yield in the different regions of Inner Mongolia.The major meteorological factors affecting the potential yield of spring wheat in the eastern area were the average minimum temperature and the average soil surface temperature during the growth period,followed by the average temperature,the total radiation and the average maximum temperature.The major factors affecting spring wheat potential yield in the western area were the average soil surface temperature,the average temperature and the average maximum temperature,followed by the average minimum temperature,the total potential evapotranspiration and the relative humidity.However,changes in spring wheat potential yield caused by average precipitation and wind speed were not obvious.The spring wheat yield in the middle area was most sensitive to solar radiation and soil temperature,followed by average minimum temperature,average temperature and average maximum temperature;however,it was least sensitive to average wind speed and total precipitation.These results can provide technical support for analyzing the limiting factors of spring wheat growth and yield formation in wheat-planting areas in Inner Mongolia under the future climate change.关键词
APSIM模型/内蒙/春小麦/潜在产量/气候变化Key words
APSIM model/Inner Mongolia/spring wheat/potential yield/climate change引用本文复制引用
赵俊芳,蒲菲堉,闫伟兄,徐精文,李宁,潘志华,张祎,郭建平..基于APSIM模型识别气象因子对内蒙春小麦潜在产量的影响[J].生态学杂志,2017,36(3):757-765,9.基金项目
国家公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506016)资助. （气象）
