水资源与水工程学报2017，Vol.28Issue(1)：74-80,7.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.01.13
RCP情景下都柳江上游气候变化及径流响应分析
Analysis of the climate change and runoff response in Duliu River upper basin under the RCP scenarios
摘要
Abstract
The monthly generalized model of Xin'an River in three-conponents was established to simulate the rainfall runoff.Where genetic algorithm was used to calibrate and optimize parameters by the historical data of precipitation,evaporation and runoff in the period of 1968 to 2004,then the process of monthly flow of Duliu River upper Basin was predicted by driving the hydrological model from using GCM downscaling data under the various scenarios of RCP.Furthermore,the scenarios of the future climate change and the simulation of hydrogragh in this region were analyzed by using linear regression methods.Results indicate that in the period of 2020 to 2099 the annual precipitation will be presenting a steady tendency,the mean annual temperature and evaporation will show a trend of fluctuation in growth while the locals decline in a short period of time.The total runoff amount in this region will be lower than the historical average level,the interannual fluctuation presents a decreasing tendency and the annual distribution is not symmetrical and mainly distributed from May to October.关键词
气候变化/径流响应/新安江月水文模型/都柳江流域Key words
climate change/runoff response/monthly hydrological model of Xin'an River/Duliu River basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
林榕杰,方国华,郭玉雪,闻昕..RCP情景下都柳江上游气候变化及径流响应分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):74-80,7.基金项目
长江科学院开放研究基金资助项目(CKWV2016370/KY) （CKWV2016370/KY）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助项目(2015B28614) （2015B28614）
江苏高校优势学科建设工程资助项目 （）
