水资源与水工程学报2017，Vol.28Issue(1)：81-87,7.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.01.14
基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究
Hydrological responses to climate change in Qinhuai river basin based on SWAT model
摘要
Abstract
In order to understand the impacts of climate change on hydrology and water resources,the established SWAT model in the Qinhuai River basin was used,the SWAT-CUP was used for the sensitivity analysis,calibration and validations of model parameters;runoff and actual evapotranspiration change in response to rainfall and temperature change were analyzed with assuming method to design future climate scenarios.The results indicated that:the SWAT model had high precision in monthly runoff simulation,and it can be used for researching hydrological response of the Qinhuai River basin under climate change;the declined temperature or increased precipitation would lead to increased runoff in the basin,on the contrary the runoff decreased;the actual evapotranspiration and precipitation were positively correlated,while the response of actual evapotranspiration to the change of temperature was not obvious;the runoff response to rainfall change was more stronger in the normal year,the runoff response to temperature change was more stronger in the dry year;and the actual evapotranspiration response to the rainfall change was more stronger in the dry year.关键词
气候变化/降雨/SWAT模型/径流模拟/水文响应/秦淮河流域Key words
climate change/rainfall/SWAT model/runoff simulation/hydrological response/Qinhuai river basin分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王怀志,高玉琴,袁玉,郭玉雪..基于SWAT模型的秦淮河流域气候变化水文响应研究[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(1):81-87,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51309076) （51309076）
中央高校业务费科技前瞻性研究专项(2014B05814) （2014B05814）
