电子科技2017，Vol.30Issue(6)：30-33,4.DOI:10.16180/j.cnki.issn1007-7820.2017.06.009
基于新维无偏灰色马尔可夫的农产品产量预测模型
The Frediction Model to Agriculture Products Yield Based on New Information Grey Markov
摘要
Abstract
The agriculture products yield has the characteristics of random and fluctuation,so this paper proposed a prediction model to agriculture products yield based on grey theory.Based on the traditional grey forecasting model and Markov chain theory, equal dimension and new information unbiased grey Markov forecasting model was established.The development tendency is imitated by the unbiased Grey model, and the stochastic volatility is dealt with by the Markov model.The newest data are gradually added while the oldest one is removed from original data sequence.The simulation experiment was carried out with food production per capita as an example,and the average relative error is 0.25%.Case study showed that the model has fewer errors and better forecasting precision, especially for medium and long-term prediction.关键词
农产品产量/灰色理论/灰色马尔可夫模型/相对误差Key words
agriculture products yield/gray theory/gray Markov model/relative error分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
陈宝平,于海英..基于新维无偏灰色马尔可夫的农产品产量预测模型[J].电子科技,2017,30(6):30-33,4.基金项目
内蒙古自然科学基金(2015MS0607). （2015MS0607）
