高电压技术2017，Vol.43Issue(6)：1943-1949,7.DOI:10.13336/j.1003-6520.hve.20170527027
基于时间序列分析与卡尔曼滤波的输电线路覆冰短期预测
Short-term Forecast for Transmission Line Icing by Time Series Analysis and Kalman Filtering
摘要
Abstract
In order to reduce the effects of the transmission lines icing accident,we can guide the ice-resistant efforts effectively if the icing thickness on the transmission lines can be predicted.Therefore,we proposed a new transmission line icing short-term forecast model based on time series analysis and Kalman filtering.By using the relevance and scheduling of transmission lines icing time data sequence,the forecast model in this article could reduce the influence of the micro meteorological conditions' measurement errors on the existing icing forecast model results effectively.Finally,through constructing the micro climate simulation platform for power system and simulating the transmission lines icing to test the forecast model,the result shows that the short-term forecasting average absolute error of the model is 0.78％.At the same time,we used the actual extraction icing data from the on-line monitoring system of Guizhou Power Grid to test the model,the short-term forecasting average absolute error of the model was 2.58％.The validity of the forecast model in this article is confirmed and the model can be able to provide the reference for transmission lines deicing.关键词
输电线路/覆冰预测/时间序列/卡尔曼滤波/遗传算法Key words
transmission line/icing forecasting/time series/Kalman filtering/genetic algorithm引用本文复制引用
黄新波,李弘博,朱永灿,王玉鑫,郑心心,王一各..基于时间序列分析与卡尔曼滤波的输电线路覆冰短期预测[J].高电压技术,2017,43(6):1943-1949,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(51177115) （51177115）
陕西省重点科技创新团队(2014KCT-16).Project supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (51177115),Key Scientific and Technological Innovation Team in Shaanxi Province (2014KCT-16). （2014KCT-16）
