南京医科大学学报（自然科学版）2017，Vol.37Issue(5)：649-652,4.DOI:10.7655/NYDXBNS20170531
基于ARIMA模型的江苏省梅毒疫情预测
Forecast of syphilis epidemic situation in Jiangsu Province base on ARIMA model
摘要
Abstract
Objective:To investigate the epidemiologic characteristics of syphilis,establish an Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average Model (ARIMA) model for the prediction of monthly incidence of syphilis in Jiangsu and provide evidence for the prevention and control of the disease.Methods:We used monthly incidence data of syphilis in Jiangsu from 1995 to 2009 to establish the ARIMA model,and then evaluated the model.Results:ARIMA (1,1,0),(2,1,0) models are the optimal models to predict the monthly incidence of syphilis in Jiangsu,the coefficients of recurrent model,seasonal first-order model,seasonal second-order model respectively are-0.579,-0.245,-0.357,statistics of t test respectively are 8.777,2.881,4.766.Correspondingly,the values of P respectively are 0.000,0.005,＜0.001.The model had favorably high precision,the predicting value was close to the true value,which was with in the 95％ confidence interval of the predicting value.Conclusion:The ARIMA model was suitable to forecast the incidence of syphilis.ARIMA model could be used to predict the incidence trend of syphilis and provide evidence for the development of syphilis prevention and control measures.关键词
ARIMA模型/时间序列分析/梅毒/预测Key words
ARIMA model/time series analysis/syphilis/predict分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张文娟,刘文东,胡建利,汤奋扬,彭志行,喻荣彬..基于ARIMA模型的江苏省梅毒疫情预测[J].南京医科大学学报（自然科学版）,2017,37(5):649-652,4.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(81673275,U1503123) （81673275,U1503123）
国家“十二五”重大科技专项(2012ZX10001-001) （2012ZX10001-001）
江苏省高校优势学科建设工程资助 （）
