泥沙研究2017，Vol.42Issue(3)：7-13,7.DOI:10.16239/j.cnki.0468-155x.2017.03.002
基于多元时间序列的河流混沌特性研究
Study on identifying chaotic characteristics of river based on multiple time series
摘要
Abstract
Based on chaos theory,the method of identifying the chaotic characteristics of channel pattern is proposed.An important effect is studied on the river evolution by time series between width-depth ratio and flow-sediment.Firstly the phases space reconfiguration are completed about these time series.Then the saturated relation dimension and the maximum Lyapunov exponent of these time series are obtained.The weighted average of saturation correlation dimension and the weighted average maximum Lyapunov exponent of these time series indicate chaotic characteristics of channel pattern.Chaos characters of width to depth ratio time series,runoff time series and sediment concentration time series for 6 reaches (including 3 channel patterns) of the lower Yellow River are analyzed.Results show that,there are obvious chaotic characteristics in river evolution,but different channel pattern has different chaotic characteristics.chaos characteristics of wandering river is more stronger than meandering river.According to chaos theory,chaotic systems can be predicted in the short-term,not predictable in the long-term,therefore river evolution only can be predicted in the short-term.关键词
河流/宽深比/径流量/含沙量/饱和关联维数/最大Lyapunov指数/混沌/耗散结构Key words
river/width-depth ratio/runoff/sediment concentration/saturated relative dimension/maximum Lyapunov exponent/chaos/dissipative structure分类
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徐国宾,赵丽娜..基于多元时间序列的河流混沌特性研究[J].泥沙研究,2017,42(3):7-13,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金创新研究群体科学基金资助项目(51321065) （51321065）
国家自然科学基金项目(50679053) （50679053）
