热带气象学报2017，Vol.33Issue(3)：289-298,10.DOI:10.16032/j.issn.1004-4965.2017.03.001
背景误差协方差变量平衡特征及其对台风同化和预报的影响
BALANCE CHARACTERISTICS OF MULTIVARIATE BACKGROUND ERROR COVARIANCE FOR TYPHOON SEASON AND ITS IMPACT ON TYPHOON DATA ASSIMILATION AND FORECAST
摘要
Abstract
Building a reasonable background error covariance is the key to data assimilation.The different statistical characteristics of the multivariate background error covariance in WRFDA system for typhoon season and non-typhoon season and its impact on the analysis and forecasting of the typhoon "Fitow" (2013) are discussed.The statistical characteristics analysis indicates that compared to non-typhoon season,unbalanced velocity potential and temperature has better dynamic correlation and the correlations of relative humidity and other control variables is larger in typhoon season.Via the correlations introduced in the background error covariance,the observations can reasonably influence the analysis field in data assimilation.The cycle data assimilation and forecast results show that the new correlations built in multivariate background error covariance play an important role in the analysis and forecast of typhoon,and especially the correlations between relative humidity and other control variables obviously improve the analysis and forecast of typhoon track,intensity and precipitation.关键词
台风/资料同化/背景场误差协方差/平衡关系Key words
typhoon/data assimilation/background error covariance/correlations分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
陈耀登,夏雪,闵锦忠,邢建勇,孙涛..背景误差协方差变量平衡特征及其对台风同化和预报的影响[J].热带气象学报,2017,33(3):289-298,10.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目(2013CB430102) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金(41675102) （41675102）
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)共同资助 （气象）
