水科学进展2017，Vol.28Issue(3)：398-405,8.DOI:10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2017.03.010
基于等可靠度法的变化环境下工程水文设计值估计方法
Estimation of design flood using equivalent reliabilitymethod under changing environment
摘要
Abstract
The intensified impact of climate change and anthropogenic activities has changed the stationary characteristics of the hydrological extreme series, thus posing a challenge on the Traditional Hydrological Frequency Analysis (THFA) method.Therefore, a new theory and approach is required for analyzing non-stationary hydrological frequency.In this paper, further discussions are conducted about the fundamental idea of Equivalent Reliability (ER) approach, and ER application for the design flood estimation under a changing environment has been expanded.The ER approach is expected to address two key issues: ① to estimate the design flood with a given design standard for a project yet to be constructed;② to adjust the design flood for an already constructed project for its adaptation to the changing conditions.The 59 years of 15-day flood volume series from 1956 to 2014 is used to demonstrate the ER approach, and analysis is conducted for the impact of parameter uncertainty on design flood.The results show that the design flood with a given return period under non-stationary conditions varies with the engineering design lifetime, and the uncertainty of the design flood estimation increases when the engineering design lifetime extends.关键词
变化环境/工程水文设计/等可靠度法/设计使用年限/不确定性Key words
changing environment/engineering hydrology/equivalent reliability/design engineering life/uncertainty分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
梁忠民,胡义明,王军,李彬权,杨靖..基于等可靠度法的变化环境下工程水文设计值估计方法[J].水科学进展,2017,28(3):398-405,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51190095) （51190095）
国家重点研发计划资助项目(2016YFC0402709)The study is financially supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51190095) and the National Key Research and Development Program of China (No.2016YFC0402709). （2016YFC0402709）
