水力发电学报2017，Vol.36Issue(6)：47-56,10.DOI:10.11660/slfdxb.20170606
基于小波分析-稳健估计的径流预报模型及应用
Runoff forecasting model based on wavelet decomposition-robust estimation and its application
摘要
Abstract
The multiple-scale time-frequency analysis based on wavelet decomposition is widely appliedto modeling and forecasting of complicated time series,but a traditional time series model cannot effectively describe the structure of a series containing outliers.To solve this problem,we adopted robust regression estimation to improve the traditional wavelet model and developed a wavelet analysis-robust estimation hydrological time series model that can effectively eliminate the impacts ofoutliers in observed data by using a multiple-scale wavelet analysis theory and its efficient processing of non-stationary signals.This model was verified against the monthly runoff forecasts of the Auto-Regressive and Moving Average (ARMA) model and Back Propagation (BP) neural network model through comparative analysis.It shows that the model is not only more accurate but also has better reliability and stability and a wider application potential in hydrological forecasting.关键词
中长期径流预报/稳健估计/小波分析/时间序列模型Key words
mid-term and long-term runoff forecasting/robust estimation/wavelet analysis/time series model分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
纪昌明,张培,吴月秋,张验科,李荣波..基于小波分析-稳健估计的径流预报模型及应用[J].水力发电学报,2017,36(6):47-56,10.基金项目
“十三五”国家重点研发计划课题(2016YFC0402208 （）
2016YFC0402308 （）
2016YFC0402309) （）
国家自然科学基金(51279062 （）
51679088) （）
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助(JB2015169 （）
2016MS51) （）
