水土保持研究2017，Vol.24Issue(4)：38-45,8.
气候变化对挠力河流域水文情势驱动影响的分析
Analysis of Driving Influence of Climate Change on the Hydrological Situation in Naoli River Basin
摘要
Abstract
In order to achieve the purpose of the water resource use and agricultural development of the Naoli river valley and the whole sanjiang plain,based on the monitoring data from two meteorological and hydrological stations in Baoqing and Caizuizi of Naoli River Bsin from 1961 to 2013 we adopted the statistical correlation and trend calculation,Mann-Kendall method to analyze the variation characteristics of the basin precipitation,temperature and runoff the in middle section,characteristics the change,especially before and after the mutation.The results showed that the temperature was significant warming trend,the precipitation and runoff were slightly down trend,which had not much changed in nearly 53 years.Mutations of the temperature and precipitation of Naoli River valley occurred in 1987.Since 1987,the low temperature and rainy period shifted to high temperature and less rain period.The correlation coefficient was 0.85 between the precipitation and runoff in Baoqing nearly 53 years,correlation coefficient was as high as 0.96 in mutation time.The corresponding in runoff year more and less accuracy was 0.93 in the year with the precipitation anomaly percentage ＞10％ and ＜10％.The correlation coefficient declined slightly in after mutation,showing that almost entirely the size of the middle and upper reaches of Naoli river runoff changes were driven by precipitation.The influence of temperature change accelerated or reduced effect of precipitation on runoff.Precipitation for role of driving force in runoff in Baoqing in the middle and lower reaches of Naoli river was also analyzed,showing that driving effect of precipitation in before time of the mutations on runoff was not significant,but mainly relied on that the underlying surface water storage and water conservancy projects played the important role in driving runoff changes.After mutations,driver effect of precipitation in Baoqing rose in lower reaches.关键词
气候变化/降水/径流/驱动/突变Key words
climate change/precipitation/runoff/driver/mutation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
殷世平,李滨江,潘华盛,高峰,于敏..气候变化对挠力河流域水文情势驱动影响的分析[J].水土保持研究,2017,24(4):38-45,8.基金项目
中国气象局沈阳大气环境研究所2016年开放项目(2016SYIAE10) （2016SYIAE10）
黑龙江省自然科学项目(D201414) （D201414）
中国气象局气象关键技术集成与应用项目(CMAGJ2015M18) （CMAGJ2015M18）
黑龙江省科技攻关项目(GC09C106) （GC09C106）
