生态学报2017，Vol.37Issue(11)：3619-3627,9.DOI:10.5846/stxb201604010594
浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别方法局限与展望
Forewarned is forearmed: limitations and prospects of early warning indicators of regime shifts in shallow lakes
摘要
Abstract
In shallow lake ecosystems,the exchange rate between water and sediment is high and can be easily disturbed by anthropogenie pressures.Additionally,catastrophic shifts occur when a threshold is reached;however,effective methods for detecting regime shifts can contribute to the timely control and restoration of eutrophication.Regime shifts of key variables,including chlorophyll,dissolved oxygen,and biomass of zooplankton and fishes,may be detected either through time series analysis,early warning signals provided by the abrupt changes of indicators,or identification of thresholds of explanatory variables,in which early warning signals can provide the most useful forecasting information.Thus far,the most widely used early warning indicators,such as autocorrelation and variance,are usually applied to lake eeosystems subject to the phenomenon of critical slowing down (CSD).However,under conditions of high stoehastieity,strong external perturbation,and extreme events,these measures may underperform or subject to misinterpretation.Thus,in terms of driving mechanisms,the applicability and limitations of CSD indicators are herein discussed,as well as their prospects.The aim of this study is to synthesize what is currently known about the early warning detection of regime shifts in shallow lake ecosystems.关键词
浅水湖泊/稳态转换/预警识别/临界慢化/驱动机制/局限/展望Key words
shallow lake ecosystems/regime shift/early warning/critical slowing down/driving mechanisms/limitations/prospects引用本文复制引用
于瑞宏,张笑欣,刘廷玺,郝艳玲..浅水湖泊稳态转换预警识别方法局限与展望[J].生态学报,2017,37(11):3619-3627,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51469018,61461034) （51469018,61461034）
水利部公益性行业科研专项(20150104) （20150104）
内蒙古科技厅科技引导项目(20140707) （20140707）
内蒙古自然科学基金项目(2014MS0403) （2014MS0403）
内蒙古科技厅应用研发项目(20130428) （20130428）
