中国人口·资源与环境2017，Vol.27Issue(6)：42-48,7.DOI:10.12062/cpre.20170361
欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示
Impacts of multiple factors on EU carbon price and implications to China
摘要
Abstract
As a market and policy innovation,China's national carbon market attracts great attention at home and abroad.In order to ensure its smooth establishment and sustainable development,it is rather urgent to learn from relevant best practices.However,as the only references in China,the 7 pilot carbon trading schemes could only provide very limited experiences.Therefore,studying and learning from EU-ETS-the largest carbon market in the world has become very important.As a significant indicator of whether a market matures or not,carbon price is able to present considerable signal.Various scholars have found respectively that prices of CER carbon,crude oil,coal and natural gas,along with Euro Stoxx index,UN climate change conferences,government policies,extreme weathers,warm winters,natural disasters and important events can all trigger EUA carbon prices fluctuating.This study therefore tries to introduce a MIV-BP model to train and test EUA prices during second and third phases and simulate how the above 11 factors influenced EUA prices.The model can well compensate the shortcomings of traditional models which are not able to handle multivariate or integrate quantitative and qualitative variables.Through data mining of 1 149 groups of phase 2 data and 775 groups of phase 3 data,the study finds out the degrees of how different variables can influence EUA prices,which the descending order in phase 2 is:natural disaster ＞ UN conferences ＞ CER ＞ extreme weathers ＞ coal prices ＞ important events ＞ Brent oil prices ＞ government policies ＞ Stock600 index ＞ natural gas prices ＞ warm winters;the order in phase 3 changes to:UN conferences ＞ Stock600 index ＞ coal prices ＞ natural disasters ＞ extreme weathers ＞ important events ＞ government policies ＞ Brent oil prices ＞ natural gas prices ＞ CER ＞ warm winters.Based on further analysis,the study presents explanation of why this change happened and gives suggestions to China's future national carbon market:①stabilize the expectation of market participants;②improve permits offset mechanism and maintain policy consistency;③take regional differences into account when allocate permits;④establish emergency response mechanism of carbon rights allocation.关键词
EU ETS/BP神经网络/碳价/影响因素Key words
EU ETS/BP neural network/carbon price/influencing factors分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
易兰,杨历,李朝鹏,任凤涛..欧盟碳价影响因素研究及其对中国的启示[J].中国人口·资源与环境,2017,27(6):42-48,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目“基于智能技术的国际碳市场价格驱动因素研究”(批准号:71101133) （批准号:71101133）
国家社会科学基金重点项目“我国碳市场成熟度及环境监管政策研究”(批准号:14AZD051) （批准号:14AZD051）
教育部新世纪优秀人才支持计划“碳金融创新——国际二氧化碳排放权市场价格形成机制研究”(批准号:NCET-11-0725) （批准号:NCET-11-0725）
陕西师范大学研究生培养创新基金项目“陕西省参与建设全国碳市场的问题研究”(批准号:2016CSY028). （批准号:2016CSY028）
