大气科学2017，Vol.41Issue(4)：739-751,13.DOI:10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.1612.16218
基于国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响
Impact of Climate Change on Aerosol Concentrations in Eastern China Based on Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) Datasets
摘要
Abstract
Changes in surface layer aerosol concentrations induced by climate change are important for understanding regional air quality.In this study,the impact of climate change on surface-layer aerosol concentrations over East Asia were investigated using multi-model results from the Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ACCMIP) under the RCP8.5 scenario during 2000-2100.With anthropogenic emissions of aerosols and aerosol precursors kept at year 2000 levels,the annual mean concentrations of surface-layer sulfate,organic carbon,and black carbon over northern China (3 1°N-45°N,105°E-122°E) were simulated to increase by 28％,21％,and 9％,respectively,owing to climate change over 2000-2100.Compared to that in 2000,annual mean surface-layer nitrate concentration in 2100 over eastern China was simulated to decrease by 30％ by climate change alone.The climate-induced changes in fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations were simulated to have large seasonal variation.Due to significant decreases in nitrate concentrations in the winter,wintertime PM2.5 concentrations over eastern China were simulated to decrease by 15％ over 2000-2100.Furthermore,the changes in summertime PM2.5 concentrations during 2000-2100 were found to have different patterns in northern and southern China;PM2.5 concentrations in northern China would increase by 16％,while those in southern China would decrease by 9％.关键词
ACCMIP(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project)/气候变化/人为气溶胶/PM2.5Key words
ACCMIP(Atmospheric Chemistry and Climate Model Intercomparison Project)/Climate change/Anthropogenic aerosol/PM2.5分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
刘瑞金,廖宏,常文渊,张天航,靳少非..基于国际大气化学—气候模式比较计划模式数据评估未来气候变化对中国东部气溶胶浓度的影响[J].大气科学,2017,41(4):739-751,13.基金项目
国家重点基础研究发展计划(973计划)项目2014CB441200,国家自然科学基金项目41475137、 91544219 National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program,Grant 2014CB441202),National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grants 41475137,91544219) （973计划）
