电力系统自动化2017，Vol.41Issue(12)：131-137,7.DOI:10.7500/AEPS20160923009
采用分段离散化和高斯混合模型的多场景概率潮流计算
Calculation of Multi-scenario Probabilistic Power Flow Based on Piecewise and Gaussian Mixture Model
摘要
Abstract
For the uncertainty of wind power and load on power system operation, a calculating method of multi-scenario probabilistic power flow based on piecewise wind power and Gaussian mixture model of load power is proposed.The output power of the wind farms is segmented using the directional power characteristic curves, and the wind power multi-scenario is set up.At the same time, the Gaussian mixture models are developed to set up the load power multi-scenario.Then, the multi-scenario of power injection and the corresponding probability are confirmed.In each scenario, the output power of each wind farm is constant, and the load power obeys Gaussian distribution.Finally, on the basis of the total probability theory, the probabilistic power flow results can be got by integrating probability distribution of the state variables and corresponding weight in each scenario.The modified IEEE 57 system is used to test the proposed method.The simulation results show that the probabilistic power flow calculation process is simplified greatly and the calculation efficiency is improved.关键词
有向功率/分段离散化/高斯混合模型/多场景/概率潮流Key words
directional wind power/piecewise/Gaussian mixture model/multi-scenario/probabilistic power flow引用本文复制引用
叶林,张亚丽,李强,宋旭日,巨云涛,饶日晟..采用分段离散化和高斯混合模型的多场景概率潮流计算[J].电力系统自动化,2017,41(12):131-137,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51477174) （51477174）
国家电网公司科技项目(DZB51201503568).This work is supported by National Natural Science Foundation of China (No.51477174) and State Grid Corporation of China (No.DZB51201503568). （DZB51201503568）
