电网技术2017，Vol.41Issue(7)：2324-2331,8.DOI:10.13335/j.1000-3673.pst.2016.2332
计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法
Probabilistic Reliability Evaluation of Active Distribution Network Based on Three-Point Estimate Method Considering Correlation of Input Variables
摘要
Abstract
In order to make sure impact of fluctuation and correlation of distributed generation (DG) power on active distribution network reliability, a probabilistic reliability evaluation method based on three-point estimate method (3PEM) is proposed to consider correlation influence of random input variables. Nataf transformation is adopted to deal with correlation among variables and point estimation is used to transform probabilistic reliability analysis into deterministic problem for solving. Firstly, sample points were obtained with 3PEM in independent standard normal variable space. Then, corresponding sample points in original variable space were calculated with inverse Nataf transformation for reliability assessment. Finally, failure mode effect analysis (FMEA) method was adopted to calculate reliability samples and system reliability indexes of distribution network are obtained from probabilistic superposition of the sample results. Simulation results with modified IEEE RBTS-bus 6 feeder F4 system show that the proposed method can achieve probabilistic reliability evaluation of distribution network considering correlation of input variables effectively, efficiently and accurately.关键词
有源配电网/概率可靠性/分布式电源/Nataf变换/三点估计法/相关性Key words
active distribution network/probabilistic reliability/distributed generation/Nataf transformation/three-point estimate method/correlation分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
范婷婷,杜松怀,刘科研,苏娟..计及输入变量相关性的有源配电网可靠性概率评估三点估计法[J].电网技术,2017,41(7):2324-2331,8.基金项目
国家重点研发计划项目(2016YFB0900100) （2016YFB0900100）
国家电网公司科技项目(PDB51201500544).Project Supported by the National Key Research Program (2016YFB0900100) （PDB51201500544）
State Grid Corporation of China Research Program (PDB51201500544). （PDB51201500544）
