河北工业科技2017，Vol.34Issue(4)：239-246,8.DOI:10.7535/hbgykj.2017yx04002
中国对波兰出口贸易绩效及其影响因素分析——基于累积Logit模型的实证研究
Trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland and its influencing factors: An empirical analysis based on cumulative Logit model
摘要
Abstract
The economic and trade cooperation between China and Poland is the focus of our trade and investment cooperation with the central and Eastern European countries.Poland and China have a good relationship of cooperation in many areas such as finance, trade and culture.In order to put forward appropriate and reasonable proposals to improve trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland, the accurate analysis of the influencing factors on the trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland is necessary.The analysis is conducted empirically based on the trade cooperation data between China and Poland from 1990 to 2014.The cumulative Logit model is applied to the regression analysis.Technology innovation, human capital, per capita income gap between China and Poland, Poland's accession to EU, Chinese direct investment in Poland and exports of structural similarity between China and Poland are chosen as the influencing factors on the trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland to evaluate these variables' influence direction of the trade performance of exports.The empirical results show that the techno-logy innovation and human capital have a significant role in promoting the export performance.Per capita income gap between China and Poland, Poland's accession to EU, Chinese direct investment in Poland and exports of structural similarity between China and Poland have some negative effects on trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland.Finally, based on the model results, specific policy recommendations are put forward to improve trade performance of Chinese exports to Poland from the aspects of increasing investment in technology and human capital, narrowing the income gap between China and Poland, and adjusting Chinese export competition strategy to Poland, providing decision reference for the successful implementation of the One Belt and One Road Strategy.关键词
国际贸易学/累积Logit模型/出口贸易绩效/波兰/逐步回归/一带一路Key words
international trade/cumulative Logit model/export performance/Poland/stepwise selection/the One Belt and One Road Strategy分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
曾勇,张静中..中国对波兰出口贸易绩效及其影响因素分析——基于累积Logit模型的实证研究[J].河北工业科技,2017,34(4):239-246,8.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务项目(2016B46114) （2016B46114）
江苏省普通高校研究生科研创新计划资助项目(KYLX16_0673) （KYLX16_0673）
