海洋预报2017，Vol.34Issue(3)：1-9,9.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2017.03.001
基于贝叶斯理论的中国近海网格化气象要素概率预报研究
Probabilistic forecast of gridding 10 meter wind over China sea based on Bayesian theory
摘要
Abstract
Based on Bayesian theory,a basic model of the probabilistic forecast was established out of the deterministic forecast of European Centre of Medium-Range Weather Forecast (ECMWF).The probability forecast from March to April 2016 was evaluated by using ERA-Interim.The results show that the probability forecasts of both all wind and strong wind have better forecast values over China sea.This study not only provides a guidance forecast for forecaster and user,but also lays the foundation for building gridding operational forecast system of 10 meter wind over China sea.关键词
贝叶斯理论/概率预报/网格化/业务预报Key words
Bayesian theory/probabilistic forecast/gridding/operational forecast分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
宋毅,宋晓姜,高志一,张志华,李敏..基于贝叶斯理论的中国近海网格化气象要素概率预报研究[J].海洋预报,2017,34(3):1-9,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金青年基金(41606033). （41606033）
