海洋预报2017，Vol.34Issue(3)：32-40,9.DOI:10.11737/j.issn.1003-0239.2017.03.005
北部湾台风风暴潮数值模拟及重点区域风险分析
Numerical simulation of typhoon storm surge in the Beibu Gulf and hazardous analysis at key areas
摘要
Abstract
A mathematic model of typhoon storm surge for the Beibu Gulf was established based on Delft3D hydrodynamic models,and the Monte Carlo method was used to generate 55 typhoons randomly according to the historical typhoon data of 67 a (1949-2015) in the Beibu Gulf.A study on hazard research of the most severe area (Tieshan Bay) and the most frequent area (Weizhou Island) affected by storm surge has been carried out by storm surge calculation with the generated typhoons.The result showed that (1) the surge at Shitoubu station affected by a typhoon with central pressure of 952 hPa is 3.68 m which return period is 1 000 a.(2) The storm surge at the coast of Guangxi has lagged effect on the typhoon passing through the Beibu Gulf.(3) The storm surge at Weizhou Island is generally low,but the typhoon into the Beibu Gulf will generate a storm surge here.Hence,the protection project at Weizhou Island should be prepared to prevent the coastline continues to retreat.关键词
Delft3D/风暴潮/蒙特卡罗/风险分析Key words
Delfl3D/storm surge/Monte Carlo/hazard research分类
海洋科学引用本文复制引用
蒋昌波,赵兵兵,邓斌,伍志元..北部湾台风风暴潮数值模拟及重点区域风险分析[J].海洋预报,2017,34(3):32-40,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51239001) （51239001）
交通运输部应用基础研究项目(2015319825080) （2015319825080）
湖南省研究生科研创新项目(CX2015B348). （CX2015B348）
