计算机工程2017，Vol.43Issue(7)：1-8,8.DOI:10.3969/j.issn.1000-3428.2017.07.001
基于首播前搜索数据的电视剧流行度预测
TV Drama Popularity Prediction Based on Search Data Before the Premiere
摘要
Abstract
Existing methods for TV drama popularity prediction in video websites solely consider the single factor and most of them cannot predict before the premiere.This will lead to the video website making unreasonable decisions on the purchase of copyright and advertising with a few days' time lag.To solve this problem,this paper proposes a method which can predict the TV drama popularity in video websites before its premiere.This method first uses the search data of TV drama such as name and actor comprehensively.Then the method calculates the earliest prediction time through time series analysis.Finally,based on multiple linear regression model,it gets the optimal feature and predicts the popularity.Experiments result shows that this method can use the thirteenth to eighteenth days' Baidu search index of name and actor before the premiere to predict 30 days' on demand quantity ranking after premiere for TV dramas launched on PPTV and YOUKU in 2014 and 2015.The Spearman correlation coefficient between the prediction rank and real rank reaches 0.943 7 on PPTV and 0.967 6 on YOUKU.The result shows that this method has a good prediction effect.关键词
电视剧流行度/电视剧点播量排名/多元线性回归/特征融合/最早预测时间/百度搜索指数Key words
TV drama popularity/TV drama on demand quantity ranking/Multiple Linear Regression(MLR)/feature fusion/earliest prediction time/Baidu search index分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
朱寒婷,尹敏,贺樑..基于首播前搜索数据的电视剧流行度预测[J].计算机工程,2017,43(7):1-8,8.基金项目
国家科技支撑计划项目(2015BAH01F02) （2015BAH01F02）
上海市科学技术委员会科研计划项目(16511102702) （16511102702）
上海市经济和信息化委员会项目(150643). （150643）
