计算机工程与应用2017，Vol.53Issue(14)：240-245,6.DOI:10.3778/j.issn.1002-8331.1601-0440
信息矩阵方法在山洪灾害风险预警中的应用
Application of information matrix method for flash flood disasters risk warning
摘要
Abstract
Identification of the early warning indicators of flash flood disasters risk warning is a key technical issue in the flood control and disaster mitigation. However, because of the short time series and the small number of flash flood disas-ters, it is difficult to use the traditional statistical model to establish the flood disaster risk early warning method. An algo-rithm relates to relationships between inputs and outputs and the input-output relationship can be mathematically repre-sented by functions. The function relationship can be established based on information matrix method which is able to get information from a small number of disaster samples. In this paper, a novel approach, called information matrix, is intro-duced to recognize the function relationship. Based on the rainfall and flow data of the 17 flash flood events between 2003 and 2012, the fuzzy relation matrix is constructed by learning from the samples of the antecedent soil moisture saturation, rainfall of five durations(1, 3, 6, 12, 24 h)before the occurrence of flash flood and the estimates of the peak flow of four return periods(<5,≥5,≥20,≥50 a). The tests of the derived risk warning indicators in 40 independent historical flash flood events at different time steps have yielded a correct warning rate of over 70%, which demonstrates the feasibility of using the method for flash flood disaster warnings.关键词
信息矩阵方法/信息分配/山洪灾害/风险预警/淠河流域Key words
information matrix/information distribution/flash flood disaster/risk warning/Pihe basin分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
叶金印,刘静,杨祖祥,李致家..信息矩阵方法在山洪灾害风险预警中的应用[J].计算机工程与应用,2017,53(14):240-245,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金(No.41130639,No.51179045) （No.41130639,No.51179045）
中国气象科学研究院灾害天气国家重点实验室开放课题(No.2015LASW-B02) （No.2015LASW-B02）
淮河流域气象开放研究基金(No.HRM201205,No.HRM201207). （No.HRM201205,No.HRM201207）
