交通信息与安全2017，Vol.35Issue(3)：26-33,8.DOI:10.3963/j.issn.1674-4861.2017.03.004
基于CREAM的船舶引航员人因可靠性预测研究
Human Reliability Prediction for Ship Pilot Based on Modified CREAM
摘要
Abstract
In order to precisely predict human reliability of ship pilots, this paper proposes a model to analyze human reliability based on cognitive reliability and error analysis method (CREAM).An improved decision-making and trial evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL) method is utilized to obtain the weights of common performance conditions (CPCs) by using triangular fuzzy numbers.Then, a fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is introduced to evaluate the performance CPCs, which can reduce the influences of subjective assessment when considering judgments from experts.Afterwards, the relationship between situational environment index and human error probability is established for a precise prediction.Finally, the results of modified CREAM and basic CREAM is compared under both actual and predefined scenarios.The result demonstrates that the modified CREAM is more reliable and sensitive than the basic CREAM.关键词
交通安全/水路运输/人因可靠性/船舶引航员/CREAM/人因失误概率Key words
transport safety/waterway transport/human reliability/ship pilot/CREAM/human error probability分类
交通工程引用本文复制引用
姜菲菲,黄明,江福才..基于CREAM的船舶引航员人因可靠性预测研究[J].交通信息与安全,2017,35(3):26-33,8.基金项目
中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金(2016-zy-019)资助 （2016-zy-019）
