气象2017，Vol.43Issue(5)：552-559,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.05.004
WRF模式不同微物理方案水凝物的预报能力检验与集成试验
Performance Verification and Ensemble Experiments of Hydrometeors Forecasting by Different Microphysical Schemes in WRF Model
摘要
Abstract
The new improved retrieval data of cloud water,rain water and ice water detected by the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring) satellite TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) are applied to quantitatively verify the performance of six microphysical schemes of WRF (Weather Research and Forecasting) model for hydrometeors over Jiangsu offshore and surrounding areas.The statistical verification results of 19 cases show that the six schemes can predict the magnitude and approximate range of the hydrometeors.For cloud water content forecasting there is a large deviation in NSSL 2-mom scheme but little deviation in other schemes.CAM5.1 scheme has a better performance in forecasting rain water when the content is larger,but worse performance when the content is small.Lin scheme is better in forecasting ice water than other schemes compared to the observation.On the basis of quantitative verification,the ensemble forecasting experiments are carried out by the two methods of ensemble mean (EMN) and the bias-removed ensemble mean (BREM).The results show that both methods can reduce the error of prediction,and the BREM is better than the EMN.关键词
WRF模式/微物理方案/水凝物/TRMM/TMI Version 7/定量检验/集成试验Key words
WRF model/microphysical schemes/hydrometeors/TRMM/TMI Version 7/quantitative verification/ensemble experiments分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
王佳,梅钦,陈钰文..WRF模式不同微物理方案水凝物的预报能力检验与集成试验[J].气象,2017,43(5):552-559,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金面上项目(41575104)、江苏气象科研基金(KM201403)和江苏气象科研基金(Q201516)共同资助 （41575104）
