气象2017，Vol.43Issue(5)：581-590,10.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.05.007
日极端气温的主客观预报能力评估及多模式集成网格释用
Evaluation on Subjective and Objective Diurnal Extreme Temperature Forecasts and Multi-Model Consensus Gridded Forecast Application
摘要
Abstract
Digital gridded weather forecast is the developing trend of weather forecasting operation in China.Based on NWP model products,meteorological observation data and an evaluation on subjective and objective forecast,a diurnal extreme temperature Multi-model Consensus Gridded Forecast (McGF) system was developed.Statistical results show that there are significant seasonal forecast error differences in both subjective and objective forecasts,and forecasters have more forecasting skills in summer,when the NWP systemaitc errors are more stable.NWP model shows a flow dependent (conditional bias) characteristic.When the temperature is higher (lower),the nagative (positive) forecast error is bigger.Both subjective and objective forecasts are affected by topography and there are relatively significant forecast errors in the northern mountainous areas.As the lead time of forecast extends,the growth of forecast errors is,not big and the subjective forecasting skills are stable relatively.Based on these results,McGF interpretation application system was devloped with four modules,including real-time verification,station-based interpretation,gridded application and performance-weighted averages.The results showed that Tmax forecasts of McGF are better than subjective and objective forecasts,with its mean absolute errors less than 2℃ within 72 h.Relatively speaking,Tmin forecast errors are much lower and the enhancements of McGF are relatively small.The cases of extreme high/low temperature showed that McGF gridded forecasts in Guangdong Province can more reasonably reflect the spatial distribution and intensity feature.关键词
最高(低)气温/预报评估/多模式集成/网格释用Key words
maximum (minimum) temperature/forecast evaluation/multi-models consensus/gridded interpretation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
吴乃庚,曾沁,刘段灵,陈炳洪,赵声蓉,张红艳..日极端气温的主客观预报能力评估及多模式集成网格释用[J].气象,2017,43(5):581-590,10.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201406003)、中国气象局预报员专项(CMAYBY2015-052)和华南区域气象科技攻关重点项目(GRMC2014Z02)共同资助 （气象）
