气象2017，Vol.43Issue(5)：628-633,6.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.05.012
2016年12月至2017年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验
Performance Verification of Medium-Range Forecast by T639, ECMWF and Japan Models from December 2016 to February 2017
摘要
Abstract
The performance of medium-range forecast is verified and compared for the models of T639,ECMWF and Japan from December 2016 to February 2017.The results show that all of the three models can predict the variation and adjustment of the atmospheric circulation over Asian middle and high latitude areas well,of which ECMWF model performs the best.The three models perform well in predicting the transitions of temperature at 850 hPa,as they all have smaller biases for southern China than for northern China.Temperature forecasts for northern China,produced by T639 model are lower while temperatures forecasted by Japan model for southern China are higher,and ECMWF model performs better than the other two models in general.For the surface high pressure forecasting during the nationwide cold wave process in February 2017,T639 model performs better in forecasting the intensity of cold high pressure than ECMWF and Japan models.ECMWF model does well in forecasting the location of high center,while T639 and Japan models produce obvious bias.关键词
T639模式/ECMWF模式/日本模式/中期天气预报/天气学检验Key words
T639 model/ECMWF model/Japan model/medium-range forecast/synoptic verification分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
张峰..2016年12月至2017年2月T639、ECMWF及日本模式中期预报性能检验[J].气象,2017,43(5):628-633,6.
