气象2017，Vol.43Issue(6)：653-664,12.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.06.002
基于GSI的华南地区对流尺度快速循环同化预报试验
Test of GSI-Based Rapid Update Cycle Numerical Prediction in Southern China
摘要
Abstract
Based on the GSI assimilation system and WRF-ARW model,a severe rainfall event which oc-curred in southern China for the period in 17-18 April 2016 was simulated by the method of rapid update cycle.The experiments used radar radial wind data and other conventional data in assimilation cycle.Sev-eral kinds of forecast variables were analyzed to find how the assimilation cycles and difference data would influence the forecast result.The results showed that despite the limitation of the single type of observa-tion,there is a certain improvement effect on the false precipitation prediction by the use of rapid update cycle.Radar radial wind data and conventional data mixing assimilation could improve the humidity and precipitation prediction skills,especially at heavy rainfall levels ETS score.Although the simulated rainfall peak value is less than real observation,the assimilation of radar radial wind data could effectively improve the vertical velocity of the squall line,so the occurrence time and intensity of heavy rainfall are much closer to the real observation.关键词
GSI同化/快速循环同化/雷达径向风同化Key words
GSI (gridpoint statistical interpolation)assimilation/rapidly cycle assimilation/radar radial wind assimilation分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
文秋实,王东海..基于GSI的华南地区对流尺度快速循环同化预报试验[J].气象,2017,43(6):653-664,12.基金项目
公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002和GYHY201306004)共同资助 （气象）
