气象2017，Vol.43Issue(6)：716-723,8.DOI:10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2017.06.008
我国台风灾害年景预评估方法初探
Preliminary Study on Pre-Evaluation Method of Typhoon Disaster in China
摘要
Abstract
In this paper,the yearly tropical cyclone potential impact index (YTCPI)is used as the link to preliminarily study the method of typhoon pre-evaluation for annual disaster situation in China.The re-sults of pre-evaluation test show that,from 1991 to 2008,the pre-evaluation of typhoon disaster for 1996, 1997 and 2004 was lower than the facts,and for other years matched with the actual situation well.The test results of independent samples in 2009-2013 show that,only in 2009 the pre-evaluation was not cor-rect.In general,it's feasible to pre-evaluate the annual disaster situation of typhoon with YTCPI index.关键词
台风/灾害年景/预评估/短期气候预测Key words
typhoon/annual disaster situation/pre-evaluation/short-term climatic prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
尹宜舟,李焕连..我国台风灾害年景预评估方法初探[J].气象,2017,43(6):716-723,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(41505060)、公益性行业(气象)科研专项(GYHY201506002)和中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201722)共同资助 （41505060）
