水土保持通报2017，Vol.37Issue(3)：167-173,187,8.DOI:10.13961/j.cnki.stbctb.2017.03.028
安徽省1995-2013年粮食生产与耕地压力动态变化特征及驱动因素
Change Characteristics and Driving Factors of Food Production and Cropland Pressure in Anhui Province During 1995-2013
摘要
Abstract
[Objective] Dynamic changes and driving factors of between food security and cropland pressure of Anhui Province were explored to provide a decision-making reference for management in making food security policy.[Methods] The cropland pressure index model,C-D production model and the partial least squares regression method were used for comprehensive analysis on dynamic characteristics and the driving factors of food production and cropland pressure in Anhui Province from 1995 to 2013.[Results] (1) The contradiction was prominent between population growth and the reduction of cropland area.The population increased from 60 million in 1995 to 69.29 million in 2013,showing a linear growth trend;while cropland area reduced from 4.29×106 hm2 in 1995 to 4.19× 106 hm2 in 2013,showing a downward trend.(2) Mean pressure index and bearing capacity index were 0.345 and 0.747 respectively.The cropland resource endowment was still in a surplus state,and Anhui Province was the national commodity grain surplus region with an average surplus rate of 25.32％.(3) Grain crop sowing area and agricultural investment in fixed assets had positive impacts on food production with marginal elasticity coefficient 0.001 458 and 0.116 508 respectively.Effective irrigation area,total power of agricultural machinery,fertilizer use,pesticide use and rural electricity consumption had weak negative impacts.[Conclusion] The enhancement of financial support,the acceleration of agricultural modernization process and the increase of contribution rate of science and technology to food production are important ways to safeguard the sustainable development of food production in Anhui Province.关键词
粮食生产/耕地压力模型/C-D生产模型/驱动因子/安徽省Key words
food production/cropland pressure model/C-D production model/driving factors/Anhui Province分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
陈素平,张乐勤..安徽省1995-2013年粮食生产与耕地压力动态变化特征及驱动因素[J].水土保持通报,2017,37(3):167-173,187,8.基金项目
安徽省科技厅软科学课题“安徽省技术进步、产业结构调整对用水变化驱动效应时空差异及响应对策研究”(1607a0202061) （1607a0202061）
