西安交通大学学报（医学版）2017，Vol.38Issue(3)：371-374,426,5.DOI:10.7652/jdyxb201703010
自回归求和移动平均乘积季节模型在西安地区出生缺陷预测中的应用
Application of multiple seasonal ARIMA model in predication of birth defect incidence in Xi'an area
摘要
Abstract
Objective To predict the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an using the "auto-regressive integrated moving average product seasonal model".Methods In Xi'an,the trend of the incidence of birth defects was analyzed and tested from October 2009 to August 2015.Using the data from September to December 2015,the actual birth defects were compared with the model fitting data to evaluate the predictive performance of the model.Multiple seasonal ARIMA model was then fitted under time series to predict the incidence of birth defects in 2016.Results Seasonal effect was seen in the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an.A multiple seasonal ARIMA(0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 was established.The mean of absolute error and the relative error were 9.5 and 0.084,respectively,when compared to the simulated number of patients from September to December in 2015,suggesting that ARIMA (0,0,1) (0,1,1)12 has a better predictive ability.Results under the prediction of multiple seasonal ARIMA model showed that the number of patients in 2016 was similar to that of 2015 in Xi'an,with a slight increase and a decrease in the peak value.Conclusion Multiple seasonal ARIMA(0,0,1)(0,1,1)12 model could be used to successfully predict the incidence of birth defects in Xi'an.关键词
出生缺陷/自回归求和移动平均乘积季节模型/预测Key words
birth defect/multiple seasonal ARIMA model/prediction分类
医药卫生引用本文复制引用
张丽,党少农,米白冰,相晓妹,宋辉,董敏,张水平,章琦,王玲玲,屈鹏飞..自回归求和移动平均乘积季节模型在西安地区出生缺陷预测中的应用[J].西安交通大学学报（医学版）,2017,38(3):371-374,426,5.基金项目
陕西省卫计委出生缺陷防治课题(No.sxwsjswzfcght2016-013)和国家自然科学基金资助项目(No.81230016)Supported by the Birth Defect Control and Prevention Project of Shaanxi Commission of Health and Family Planning (No.sxwsjswzfcght2016-013) and the National Natural Science Foundation of China(No.81230016) （No.sxwsjswzfcght2016-013）
