水资源与水工程学报2017，Vol.28Issue(3)：15-19,26,6.DOI:10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2017.03.04
饶河流域未来水资源量变化预测分析
Prediction and analysis of future water resources change in Raohe river basin
摘要
Abstract
Based on the data of precipitation, temperature and NCEP reanalysis data of Jingdezhen meteorological station from 1961 to 2001, a statistical downscaling model of SDSM for precipitation and temperature in Raohe river basin was established;According to A2 and B2 scenarios of IPCC AR4 emission scenario special report, the output data of HADCM3 was downscaled to predict the precipitation and temperature change in the future period (2010-2099) in the Raohe River Basin;And coupled with the Xin'anjiang model to get the water resources of Raohe River Basin in the future period.The results show that the future water resources of the Raohe River Basin will decrease continuously, and the A2 scenario will have a larger decline than the B2 scenario, and the largest decline of Changjiang river in the period of 2080s(2070-2099) will reach 31.01%.关键词
新安江模型/SDSM(Statistical Downscaling Model)/水资源量/饶河流域Key words
Xin'anjiang model/SDSM/water resources/Raohe River Basin分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
刘威,张行南,方园皓..饶河流域未来水资源量变化预测分析[J].水资源与水工程学报,2017,28(3):15-19,26,6.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(51420105014) （51420105014）
水利部公益性行业科研专项项目(201401034、2012AA12A309) （201401034、2012AA12A309）
中国长江三峡集团公司资助项目(0799556) （0799556）
