中国农业大学学报2017，Vol.22Issue(7)：186-199,14.DOI:10.11841/j.issn.1007-4333.2017.07.21
我国农业面源污染的时空分异与动态演进
Spatial-temporal pattern and dynamic evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution in China
摘要
Abstract
To acquire an accurate understanding the spatial distribution rule of agricultural non-point source pollution in China,the panel data of 30 provinces in China from 1997 to 2013 were adopted to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution characteristics of Chinese agricultural non-point source pollution.A non-parametric kernel density estimation model was built to discuss the dynamic evolution of agricultural non-point source pollution and an exploratory spatial data analysis method was further employed to discuss its spatial correlation.The result showed that:Pollution from four sources including agricultural fertilizer inputs,agricultural solid wastes (straws),aquaculture and livestock and poultry farming,and three kinds of pollutants,which are nitrogen,phosphorus and chemical oxygen demand,kept increasing year by year.Among which,the livestock and poultry breeding contributed the most.The area of serious agricultural non-point source pollution was concentrated in big agricultural provinces and economically developed places.The central and northern regions were the core area in the spatial distribution,and the core area was radiating to the external and shows a decreasing trend.Agricultural non-point source pollution areas agglomerated obviously,but differed greatly,and polarized seriously.Agricultural non-point source pollution showed obvious spatial correlation,and formed a high-high concentration area,mainly located in big agricultural provinces.Therefore,the policy incentives should be strengthened,environmental awareness of farmers should be guided,and agricultural production should be encouraged to develop from extensive growth to quantity and qualitative and quantitative growth.Considering the negative effects of spatial spillovers of adjacent regional policy,the zone defense policy should be utilized to eliminate the shift of agricultural nonpoint source pollution management in high high agglomeration areas and to create a win-win situation with great effort and strict control.关键词
农业面源污染/空间相关性/动态演进/空间分异Key words
agricultural non-point source pollution/spatial correlation/dynamic evolution/spatial differentiation分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
吴义根,冯开文,李谷成..我国农业面源污染的时空分异与动态演进[J].中国农业大学学报,2017,22(7):186-199,14.基金项目
安徽省高校自然科学研究重点项目(KJ2014A177) （KJ2014A177）
国家自然科学基金面上项目(71273103) （71273103）
国家自然科学基金国际合作项目(NSFC-CGIAR,71461010701) （NSFC-CGIAR,71461010701）
