安徽农业科学2017，Vol.45Issue(20)：165-168,4.
近33年来乌鲁木齐地区雷暴时空变化特征及趋势预测分析
Temporal and Spatial Variation Characteristics and Trend Forecast of Thunderstorm in Urumqi Area in Recent 33 Years
摘要
Abstract
Using the monthly thunderstorms data in Urumqi during 1981-2013, the linear trend fitting, Mann-Kendall mutation test, R/S trend analysis and Kriging space interpolation were used to explore the temporal and spatial distribution law and future trends of thunderstorms days in complex terrain of Urumqi.The results showed that the spatial distribution of thunderstorms in Urumqi was characterized by the mountainous area more than plain and south more than north.The southern mountainous area was a thunderstorm multi-center,the urban area, northern plain and Dabancheng valley were low-value areas.The thunderstorm days in Urumqi region showed a trend of falling volatility and climate tendency rate was-1.67 d/10 a.The mountain area was the most significant decline, followed by the plain area,and the decline process performance was not significant in urban area.Thunderstorms were mainly concentrated from May to August, the frequency of thunderstorms was highest in July, almost no thunderstorms occurred from October to next March.Mutation test analysis showed that the district had not been significant decline mutation process in the past 33 years, but there was an obvious phenomenon of Hurst, future trends exist strong sustainability, which will remain down trend, urban sustainability strength is not big.关键词
雷暴/时空变化/突变/趋势预测Key words
Thunderstorm/Temporal and spatial variation/Mutation/Trend prediction分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
赵德龙,曹兴,万瑜..近33年来乌鲁木齐地区雷暴时空变化特征及趋势预测分析[J].安徽农业科学,2017,45(20):165-168,4.基金项目
新疆自治区气象局青年基金课题(Q201711). （Q201711）
