南水北调与水利科技2017，Vol.15Issue(4)：7-12,6.DOI:10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2017.04.002
基于TOPSIS-模糊综合评判的模糊推理模型在开河预报中的应用
Application of the fuzzy reasoning model based on TOPSIS-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to ice forecast
摘要
Abstract
The break-up and freeze-up of the river is under the influence of various natural and human factors,and is an issue of great uncertainty.To further improve the accuracy of break-up and freeze-up forecasts,the key is to consider the combined action of various factors.First,we used the principal component analysis to preliminarily determine the weight of each factor that affects the break-up and freeze-up duration,and used the fuzzy reasoning model to conduct preliminary prediction according to the similarity of the impact factor matrix.Then we identified forecast factors using the TOPSIS-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation model and selected reasonable forecast factors to conduct secondary prediction.The fuzzy reasoning model based on TOPSIS-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation and ice forecast factor identification was tested in a case study and was compared with the fuzzy optimization neural network BP model.The results showed that the fuzzy reasoning model in this paper had high precision and good effects in prediction.It can effectively identify forecast factors,and can well improve the accuracy of freeze-up and break-up duration forecasts.It provides a new approach for ice run prediction.关键词
模糊推理/主成分分析法/TOPSIS-模糊综合评判/凌汛Key words
fuzzy reasoning/principal component analysis/TOPSIS-fuzzy comprehensive evaluation/ice run分类
天文与地球科学引用本文复制引用
雷冠军,殷峻暹,刘惠敏,张丽丽..基于TOPSIS-模糊综合评判的模糊推理模型在开河预报中的应用[J].南水北调与水利科技,2017,15(4):7-12,6.基金项目
国家重点研究发展计划(973计划)(2013CB036400) （973计划）
国家自然科学基金项目(51509088) （51509088）
河南省高校科技创新团队(14IRTSTHN028) （14IRTSTHN028）
流域水循环模拟与调控国家重点实验室自主研究课题(2016ZY08) The National Basic Research Program of China (973 Program)(2013CB036400) （2016ZY08）
National Natural Science Foundation of China(51509088) （51509088）
Henan Province Science and Technology Innovation Team(14IRTSTHN028)；The Independent Research of the State Key Laboratory of the Basin Water Cycle Simulation and Control(2016ZY08) （14IRTSTHN028）
