农业现代化研究2017，Vol.38Issue(4)：597-604,8.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0055
粮农能对价格做出正确响应吗? ——基于参照点效应的视角
Can grain farmers correctly respond to prices? From an anchoring effect perspective
摘要
Abstract
The study on the response of grain farmers to price signals has a great practical significance to solve the food security problem. Based on a panel data of grain farmers' planting behaviors from some main grain production provinces or autonomous regions in China from 2002 to 2015 and applying the prospect theory and the threshold panel data model, this paper analyzed the mechanism of grain farmers' planting response to market price. Results show that planting decision-making of grain farmers depends on the reference point, in that the judgment on loss and profit of grain farmers is relative to the price reference point. Parameter estimation results reveal that farmers are risk averse in market returns. However, the behaviors of grain farmers are not significantly affected by market risks from the perspective of market loss. Compared with market returns, grain farmers are more sensitive to the price of food and oil from the perspective of market loss. In summary, this paper suggests that policy makers should pay attention to grain farmers' market expectations and the psychological decision-making mechanism of their planting behaviors, and then make some flexible grain price policies combined with the reference point of grain farmers.关键词
粮食生产/种植行为/价格预期/参照点效应/面板门限模型Key words
grain production/planting behaviors/price expectations/anchoring effect/panel threshold model分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
赵玉,张玉,严武..粮农能对价格做出正确响应吗? ——基于参照点效应的视角[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(4):597-604,8.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71503038) （71503038）
中国博士后科学基金项目(2015M570564) （2015M570564）
中国博士后科学基金特别资助项目(2016T90602). National Natural Science Foundation of China (71503038) （2016T90602）
China Postdoctoral Science Foundation Funded Project (2015M570564, 2016T90602). （2015M570564, 2016T90602）
