农业现代化研究2017，Vol.38Issue(4)：649-657,9.DOI:10.13872/j.1000-0275.2017.0074
化肥施用强度对中国粮食单产的影响分析 ——基于省级面板数据的分位数回归
The effects of fertilizer application intensity on grain yields in China: A quantile regression model analysis based on provincial panel data
摘要
Abstract
Based on provincial panel data, and applying the quantile regression model, this paper analyzed the effects of fertilizer application on grain yield in China. Varieties studied in this research include early indica-rice, middle indica-rice, late indica-rice, japonica-rice, wheat and corn. Results show that China's agricultural fertilizer application has been growing continuously and has exceeded the international safety standard. The intensities of fertilizer on wheat and corn were higher than that of rice. There exists intensity difference between advantage producing areas and disadvantage producing areas and it also exists between eastern China and western China. Descriptive statistical analysis indicates that the strength of fertilizer and grain yield have the same trend. Chemical fertilizers still have positive effects on grain yields while showing significant declining marginal return. In the future, the Government should encourage zero growth of fertilizer application, pay more attention to improve fertilizer efficacy, and keep the balance between grain security and sustainable agricultural development.关键词
化肥施用强度/粮食单产/分位数回归/区域分异/边际效用/化肥施用零增长Key words
application intensity of fertilizer/grain yield/quantile regression model/regional difference/marginal utility/zero growth of fertilizer分类
管理科学引用本文复制引用
朱满德,李辛一,徐雪高..化肥施用强度对中国粮食单产的影响分析 ——基于省级面板数据的分位数回归[J].农业现代化研究,2017,38(4):649-657,9.基金项目
国家自然科学基金项目(71473052,71273069) （71473052,71273069）
国务院发展研究中心 2016 年委托项目 （）
贵州省教育厅青年学术创新人才项目(JYT2016004). National Natural Science Foundation of China (71473052, 71273069) （JYT2016004）
Program of Development Research Center of the State Council （）
Program of the Academic Innovation Youth Talent of Department of Education at Guizhou Province (JYT2016004). （JYT2016004）
