气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(4)：299-305,7.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.201
1.5℃全球温控目标浅析
The Preliminary Interpretation on 1.5 ℃ Global Temperature Goal
摘要
Abstract
The Paris Agreement has set one of its targets that to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels (in short 1.5℃ target). The studies on 1.5℃ target are limited currently. According to existing researches, the 1.5℃ target, comparing with 2℃ long-term temperature goal, probably could reduce the climate risk for the earth systems but need more stringent global mitigation efforts. Although the Parties have committed their national determined contributions (NDC) till 2030 (2025), there is still a big gap with respect to the 1.5℃ target. Corresponding model simulations have shown that the global temperature rise by the end of the 21st century is in the range of 2.2?3.4℃ if the current NDC is fully implemented. There is still 467 Gt CO2 left under the 2℃ scenario, 17 Gt CO2 remaining under the 1.5℃ scenario. By 2030, the NDC-based emissions will have exceeded the target emissions of 1.5℃ . According to the current pathway, the 1.5℃target requests not only an immediate mitigation action and other actions related to decarbonization and carbon sequestration measures, but also a negative emission before 2100. Regardless the uncertainty from scientific communities, 1.5℃ target is more than just a direction for tackling climate change, but start an important way for the future global low-carbon sustainable development.关键词
气候变化长期目标/1.5℃目标/减缓行动/低碳发展Key words
climate change long-term goal/1.5℃ target/mitigation action/low carbon development引用本文复制引用
张永香,黄磊,周波涛,徐影,巢清尘..1.5℃全球温控目标浅析[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):299-305,7.基金项目
国家自然科学基金委项目(41401058) （41401058）
中国气象局创新团队气候变化决策支撑研究组,气候变化专项(CCSF201731) （CCSF201731）
CDM 赠款项目"IPCC 第五次评估报告第一、二工作组报告、综合报告及清单工作组报告支撑研究"(2013024) （2013024）
