气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(4)：306-315,10.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.239
1.5~4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估
Asian Climate Change in Response to Four Global Warming Targets
摘要
Abstract
Based on the simulations of 18 CMIP5 models under three RCP scenarios, this article investigates the changes of the mean temperature and precipitation as well as their extremes over Asia in the context of global warming targets of 1.5-4 ℃ , and further compares their differences between the 1.5℃ and the 2℃ targets. The results show that relative to the preindustrial era, the mean temperature over Asia will increase by 2.3℃ , 3.0 ℃ , 4.6 ℃ and 6.0℃ at the warming targets of 1.5℃ , 2 ℃ , 3 ℃ and 4℃ , respectively, with stronger warming in the high latitudes than in the low latitudes. The corresponding enhancement in the mean precipitation over the entire Asian region is 4.4%, 5.8%, 10.2% and 13.0%, but there are significant regional differences. Meanwhile, an increase in warm extreme, a decrease in cold extreme, and an augment in the variability of the extreme precipitation amount are projected. Compared with the case under the 2℃ target, the mean temperature will decrease more than 0.5-1℃ over Asia at the 1.5℃ target, and the mean precipitation will reduce 5%-20% over most of the Asian areas while increase by about 10%–15% over West Asia and western South Asia. The extreme high temperature will appear uniformly lower in the Asian region, and the extreme low temperature will decrease significantly in the high latitudes of Asia. Increase in the extreme precipitation will weaken over most of Asia but enhance over West Asia. Under the 1.5℃ and 2 ℃ warming targets, the probability of the occurrence of very hot weather, extremely hot weather and extremely strong precipitation will increase respectively by at least one time, 10% and 10% as compared to the reference period (1861-1900).关键词
全球气候模式/CMIP5/升温阈值/极端气候/气候变化Key words
global climate model/CMIP5/warming target/climate extreme/climate change引用本文复制引用
徐影,周波涛,吴婕,韩振宇,张永香,吴佳..1.5~4℃升温阈值下亚洲地区气候变化预估[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):306-315,10.基金项目
国家重点研发计划(2016YFA0600701) （2016YFA0600701）
国家自然基金项目(41675069) （41675069）
中国气象局气候变化专项(CCSF201731) （CCSF201731）
