气候变化研究进展2017，Vol.13Issue(4)：316-326,11.DOI:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.235
全球升温1.5℃时北半球多年冻土及雪水当量的响应及其 变化
Responses and Changes in the Permafrost and Snow Water Equivalent in the Northern Hemisphere Under A Scenario of 1.5℃ Warming
摘要
Abstract
In this study, the period that corresponds to the thresholds of a 1.5℃ rise (relative to 1861-1880) in surface temperature is validated using a multi-model ensemble mean from 17 global climate models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). On this basis, the changes in permafrost and snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere are investigated under a scenario in which the global surface temperature has risen by 1.5℃, and the uncertainties of the results are further discussed. The results show that the threshold of 1.5℃warming will be reached in 2027, 2026, and 2023 under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5) respectively. When the global average surface temperature rises by 1.5 ℃ , the southern boundary of the permafrost will move 1°-3.5°northwards, particularly in the southern Central Siberian Plateau. The permafrost area will be reduced by 3.43×106 km2 (21.12%), 3.91×106 km2 (24.10%) and 4.15×106 km2 (25.55%) relative to 1986-2005 in RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, under a scenario of 1.5 ℃ warming. The snow water equivalent will decrease in over half of the regions in the Northern Hemisphere but increase only slightly in the Central Siberian Plateau. The snow water equivalent will decrease significantly (more than 40%relative to 1986-2005) in central North America, western Europe and northwestern Russia. The permafrost area in Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease by 0.15×106 km2 (7.28%), 0.18×106 km2 (8.74%), and 0.17×106 km2 (8.25%), respectively, in RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5. The snow water equivalent in winter (DJF) and spring (MAM) over the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau will decrease by 14.9% and 13.8%, respectively.关键词
多年冻土/雪水当量/北半球/全球变暖1.5℃Key words
permafrost/snow water equivalent/Northern Hemisphere/global warming 1.5℃引用本文复制引用
孔莹,王澄海..全球升温1.5℃时北半球多年冻土及雪水当量的响应及其 变化[J].气候变化研究进展,2017,13(4):316-326,11.基金项目
重点基础研究发展计划 973 项目(2013CBA01808) （2013CBA01808）
国家自然科学基金项目(91437217、41275061、41471034、41661144017) （91437217、41275061、41471034、41661144017）
中央高校基本科研业务专项(lzujbky-2015-k03) （lzujbky-2015-k03）
