水力发电2017，Vol.43Issue(7)：22-25,4.
水库洪水实时优化校正预报模型的探究与应用
Research and Application of Real-time Flood Correction and Forecast Model for Reservoir Flood
摘要
Abstract
On the basis of classical watershed hydrological model-Xin'anjiang Model and coupling with SCE-UA global optimization algorithm and autoregressive error correction nodel,a flood real-time optimization correction forecast model which is suitable for reservoir basin developed.According to measured rainfall and runoff,the global optimization real-time correction calculation is carried out for hydrological model parameters and watershed state parameters,and then a high accuracy forecast of flood process in a certain period in the future can be obtained based on rainfall forecast.Taking Tingxia Reservoir Basin as study case,the preliminary forecast and real-time optimization correction forecast of flood are carried out respectively.The comparison of results shows that the real-time optimization correction forecast can better simulate measured flood process and has higher accuracy.关键词
实时校正预报/模型/水库/洪水Key words
real-time correction forecast/model/reservoir/flood分类
建筑与水利引用本文复制引用
顾巍巍,孙如飞,张卫国,李致家..水库洪水实时优化校正预报模型的探究与应用[J].水力发电,2017,43(7):22-25,4.基金项目
浙江省水利厅科技项目(RA1502) （RA1502）
国家自然科学基金资助项目(51679061) （51679061）
