电测与仪表2017，Vol.54Issue(14)：14-23,10.
电力市场用电量需求分析预测模型研究
Research on power market electricity demand analysis and forecasting model
摘要
Abstract
Combined with historical electricity data of a city in Guangdong province, and according to industrial subdivision, the overall framework of power market electricity demand analysis and forecasting model based on industrial electricity consumption feature was designed, including technical framework design of cloud computing based on big data platform, which can solve problems of data island. Based on the framework and case analysis, several commonly used electricity analysis and forecasting approaches were discussed, including the industrial driving factor method, electricity elasticity coefficient method and power similarity month method, and the corresponding forecasting processes and results were given. Then, combined with electricity analysis, the industrial credit rating and climate index models were studied. Finally, based on study of the electricity comsumption, the supply-demand interaction relations of grid, user and power seller under market competitive mechanisms were discussed. The designed model can provide mathematical basis and model for marketing service strategies making, tariff recovery, industry credit rating and early-warning, accordingly the ability of market analysis and decision-making is improved.关键词
预测/用电量需求/驱动因素/信用度评价/大数据平台Key words
forecasting/electricity demand/driving factor/credit rating/big data platform分类
信息技术与安全科学引用本文复制引用
丁业豪,麦琪..电力市场用电量需求分析预测模型研究[J].电测与仪表,2017,54(14):14-23,10.基金项目
中国南方电网科技项目资助(GDKJ00000052) （GDKJ00000052）
